Helpful ReplyHot!To Brexit or not to Brexit?

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Cherno Samba
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 10:58:13 (permalink)
SmokedEggs
How long will it take to train and equip thousands of customs officers, and to setup the computer systems that they will need to use to do their job?  That alone would be an ambitious task to complete within a five year period, let alone overnight. 




The no deal argument would be at-least be slightly believable if the government had actually started to plan for extra customs checks, but they haven't, so they undermine themselves.
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 10:58:17 (permalink)
geordie007
Duderonomy
geordie007
SW14
No deal would literally mean the country grinding to a halt. No deal would mean no access to EU airspace and vice versa. It's an unthinkable option.




You sure about that airspace thing SW14? Sounds a bit wrong to me


Google “Brexit airspace” for an idea of how fucked the UK could be if the EU doesn’t want to play nice.



 
Had a scan of a few articles there and to be honest the large European legacy carriers would have a lot to lose as well from the loss of shared airspace seeing as Heathrow is such a hub for them and after a glance at flight radar earlier when I saw SW14 post that there were at least 5 airlines currently overhead that did not start in the uk and for them to have to divert round us would just add extra costs to them so I'm sure they'll all be lobbying hard for this to carry on.




lol, easy as that!

no
Geordie007
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:08:32 (permalink)
You're so pessimistic aren't you?
 
How do you see it then?
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:17:16 (permalink)
well, we're over a year past the referendum and no closer to getting this resolved.
 
something like airspace probably would get sorted at the 11th hour, but it's indicative of the government's shit, unprepared approach to everything brexit related. the EU have been crystal clear on their negotiating position from day one and we still aren't close to getting the fundamentals they've stipulated sorted.
 
even if airspace gets sorted, there is still a lot to do with unpicking and reintegrating new UK bodies (who are currently no wiser to whether they'll exist or not) with the EU regarding flying standards, maintenance, air traffic control and so on. which will take longer than overnight.
 
and this is just one of hundreds of areas where the UK will have to unmesh itself from integrated networks, from academic research to nuclear power to customs and live animal transport. to its huge detriment. and we're no clearer on those either.
 
and guess which side is in the stronger negotiating position? is it the large one who potentially could lose 15% of its trade (which it could cope with) should no deal be struck and we revert to WTO rules, or the smaller one that stands to lose half?
 
it's fucking farcical. and, dare i say, playing out exactly as many remain voters predicted. 
post edited by wiseacre - 2017/10/27 11:24:41

no
SmokedEggs
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:21:05 (permalink)
geordie007
You're so pessimistic aren't you?
 
How do you see it then?




I think it's more realistic than pessimistic, because it describes the default position of what will happen if we fall out of the EU without a deal.
 
Brexiteers want to be able to leave their wife, have access to her house, but not give access to theirs, continue fucking her, not give her any divorce payments, and think that will all just work swimmingly.
 
If we have a hard brexit, i.e. no deal, then we walk away from all of the arrangements, deals, and organisations involved.  
 
To avoid that, we need to negotiate a deal to retain access to those arrangements, deals and organisations.  By default, a hard Brexit will not achieve that. I happen to think that those Brexiteers that think we can have a no-deal Brexit and retain many of the benefits of the EU, are not just overly optimistic, but are way out of touch with reality.
 
post edited by SmokedEggs - 2017/10/27 11:24:17
Geordie007
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:23:24 (permalink)
wiseacre
well, we're over a year past the referendum and no closer to getting this resolved.
 
something like airspace probably would get sorted at the 11th hour, but it's indicative of the government's shit, unprepared approach to everything brexit related. the EU have been crystal clear on their negotiating position from day one and we still aren't close to getting the fundamentals they've stipulated sorted.
 
even if airspace gets sorted, there is still a lot to do with unpicking and reintegrating new UK bodies with the EU regarding flying standards, maintenance, air traffic control and so on.
 
and this is just one of hundreds of areas where the UK will have to unmesh itself from integrated networks, from academic research to nuclear power to customs and live animal transport. to its huge detriment. and we're no clearer on those either.
 
and guess which side is in the stronger negotiating position? is it the large one who potentially could lose 15% of its trade (which it could cope with) should no deal be struck and we revert to WTO rules, or the smaller one that stands to lose half?




 
Oh I quite agree that the govt are making a mess of it all and stuff like this should've been sorted by now but as you have agreed it will probably get sorted as there are too many vested interests from all when it comes to airspace - which is all ive commented on
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:25:26 (permalink)
it will get rushed and the UK will come off worse.

no
gutlessrhyme
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:31:33 (permalink)
wiseacre
it will get rushed and the UK will come off worse.




This. And the Brexiteers/right wing media will blame it on the EU.
SW14
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:36:43 (permalink)
I agree that a deal on airspace will probably be done, but that involves a deal.

When they refer to "no deal" are they specifically referring to trading on WTO rules (e.g. no trade deal) or just walking away from negotiations entirely and telling Johnny Foreigner to whistle for the outstanding budget contributions?
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 11:42:56 (permalink)
the latter would lead to the former.
 
it has been one of the EU's central points to get agreed since the start. and fair enough imo.
 
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en
 
the UK still has nothing like the above. woefully unprepared.
post edited by wiseacre - 2017/10/27 11:44:45

no
Geordie007
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 14:31:59 (permalink)
Come one wiseacre cheer up
 
https://www.yourchristmascountdown.com/
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 14:42:58 (permalink)
i would if the government had displayed even a smidgen of competence. instead we've got cabinet members at loggerheads, a weak PM who can't afford to upset the brexit nutters on the backbenches so has to pretend to be playing hardball with the EU (when we don't even have a ball) yet asked juncker to throw her a bone in private, a brexit minister who thought we could make a trade deal with just germany and no resolution on any of the basic fundamentals. which would be fine if this didn't have the potential to completely fuck all of our and our children's futures - as all the treasury's economic reports they keep suppressing show.
 
my only hope is that they're purposefully cocking it up so that it never goes ahead.

no
Duderonomy
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 14:52:56 (permalink)
Something else Brexitters are staggeringly naive about is the EU’s acceptance of a deal. Newsflash:

:::The EU doesn’t have to accept anything:::

So if you think that’s it’s only the UK that is capable of cutting its nose off to spite its face, the EU could just as easily do the same to make an example out of the UK and the dangers of leaving. At the moment the EU is being forced to act like adults while a stroppy child has a tantrum. But if the farce continues for long enough, and enough valuable assets leave the UK (banks etc), the EU could decide on No Deal, and cut you loose.
post edited by Duderonomy - 2017/10/27 19:40:41
OEM
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 15:02:16 (permalink)
There's no way Brexit doesn't happen. 80% of MP's chose to vote in favour of triggering Article 50. There has to be a monumental rupture in politics for Brexit to be reversed. I'm not saying it isn't possible. Very, very unlikely tho. A general election with a party promising to undo the fuck up before March 2019 could possibly reverse it. What needs to happen for that scenario to play out?


Stoopid_Fux
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 15:07:15 (permalink)
we need another european war really 
gutlessrhyme
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 15:21:38 (permalink)
OEM
There's no way Brexit doesn't happen. 80% of MP's chose to vote in favour of triggering Article 50. There has to be a monumental rupture in politics for Brexit to be reversed. I'm not saying it isn't possible. Very, very unlikely tho. A general election with a party promising to undo the fuck up before March 2019 could possibly reverse it. What needs to happen for that scenario to play out?



I think it's more possibly than you're suggesting. The "monumental rupture in politics" will happen regardless, unless David Davies pops up at the last minute with a magnificent free trade agreement etc. Likelihood of that based on the evidence so far? nil.
 
I've said all along that Brexit won't happen and there's still a part of me that thinks that. 
If the Government carry on as they are, any vote that goes to Parliament will be rejected, therefore I reckon they will try to avoid a vote on any deal at all costs (despite suggesting otherwise yesterday). Therefore they either have to delay and delay and delay for as long as the EU will allow, or/and be forced in to calling a general election. 
Whatever happens, half of this country will remain pissed off and the political divisions will last for years.
Thanks pigfucker.
post edited by gutlessrhyme - 2017/10/27 15:22:39
OEM
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 15:30:37 (permalink)
A rupture in politics isn't regardless.

The negotiator will simply be replaced. He is replaceable, as is the PM. As is Conservative government.


gutlessrhyme
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 15:36:53 (permalink)
OEM
A rupture in politics isn't regardless.

The negotiator will simply be replaced. He is replaceable, as is the PM. As is Conservative government.



well:
 
Hard Brexit = rupture
No Brexit = rupture
 
The only situation where there wouldn't be a rupture would be if the Tories pull a deal out of their arse in the next few months. Is that going to happen? Not likely
If there is a GE, no matter who gets in it will take time to regroup, pull together a strategy and negotiate the entire situation in less than 17 months.
Duderonomy
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 19:43:20 (permalink)
OEM
A rupture in politics isn't regardless.

The negotiator will simply be replaced. He is replaceable, as is the PM. As is Conservative government.


"The negotiator will simply be replaced" - means nothing if the negotiation position isn't replaced.
Geordie007
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 20:07:33 (permalink)
Stoopid_Fux
we need another european war really 


Can we start on luxembourg firat then make our way in a westerly direction?
OEM
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 21:49:45 (permalink)
Duderonomy
OEM
A rupture in politics isn't regardless.

The negotiator will simply be replaced. He is replaceable, as is the PM. As is Conservative government.


"The negotiator will simply be replaced" - means nothing if the negotiation position isn't replaced.


Do you rate him? Is he the best person for the job?


SW14
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 21:56:20 (permalink)
Duderonomy
Something else Brexitters are staggeringly naive about is the EU’s acceptance of a deal. Newsflash:

:::The EU doesn’t have to accept anything:::

So if you think that’s it’s only the UK that is capable of cutting its nose off to spite its face, the EU could just as easily do the same to make an example out of the UK and the dangers of leaving. At the moment the EU is being forced to act like adults while a stroppy child has a tantrum. But if the farce continues for long enough, and enough valuable assets leave the UK (banks etc), the EU could decide on No Deal, and cut you loose.


We are a huge economy that would do immense damage to the Eurozone economy due to our reliance on their imports.

They don't *have* to accept a deal but they and us will probably slide into recession if they don't.
wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 22:03:34 (permalink)
They probably might. We definitely would. And they are far more likely to be able to source from elsewhere in the eu or places the eu has trade agreements with than we can within the uk or from places we might have agreements in place when we're outside the eu (ie nowhere initially).

The UK makes up 15% of intra eu trade, whereas the eu makes up 50% of UK trade.

no
Duderonomy
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/10/27 23:39:41 (permalink)
OEM
Duderonomy
OEM
A rupture in politics isn't regardless.

The negotiator will simply be replaced. He is replaceable, as is the PM. As is Conservative government.


"The negotiator will simply be replaced" - means nothing if the negotiation position isn't replaced.


Do you rate him? Is he the best person for the job?


You don’t bring a spatula to a sword-fight: I wouldn’t rate Zorro with the wooden spoon he’d have to use.
gutlessrhyme
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 11:43:27 (permalink)
Just heard a quote from an unknown source (Tory MP): Leaving the EU will be a disaster for the country, but not leaving the EU will be a disaster for the party.
 
Pretty much sums it up
KNUCKLES
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 16:32:22 (permalink)
Great strategy to release the reports stating how fcked we are for Brexit AFTER the vote.
Just incase May & Davis needed any extra help with looking like a div in the EU talks, all this does in further weaken our hand...cant see any postivity from it other then Remainers being able to say 'told you so'
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41849030
Johnny Quest
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 17:06:43 (permalink)
We've essentially let a bunch of backwater, xenophobic morons dictate the direction of the country based on whatever low bar media was in their view leading up to the referendum. 
 

wiseacre
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 17:11:58 (permalink)
with russia prodding it along all the way:
 
https://imgur.com/gallery/6flYH
 










 

no
KNUCKLES
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 18:24:36 (permalink)
I thought the most recent series of Homeland absolutely nailed the whole Bot phenomenon, almost scarily so. With the website guy being a hybrid of O'Reilly and Alex Jones. But if you were to try to explain the above to somebody then you come across as looking like the Alex Jones
 
also, never forget HE WILL RUN MAN DOWN
 

Duderonomy
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Re: To Brexit or not to Brexit? 2017/11/02 19:18:38 (permalink)
wiseacre
with russia prodding it along all the way:
 
 


Is there a way I can share this on Facebook?
post edited by Duderonomy - 2017/11/02 19:26:06
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