AnsweredHot!Politics Thread

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SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 12:10:07 (permalink)
Jungle Dave
@ SW14 
 
Tarzan must be a DNBA lurker, in this article he steals my idea of a new "Marshall Plan" to sort the Middle East out
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lord-heseltine-brexit-government-cabinet-theresa-may-a7634346.html
 
 


The Lib Dems stole my idea of a 1p NHS emergency income tax rise too.

DNBA becoming something of a think tank.
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 12:16:00 (permalink)
Goodone
rather than the alternative which is shackle ourselves to a failing eu

Whagwan
lol, do those words actually mean anything?

 
Of course they do! You might disagree with them - and I think that's a perfectly fair view - but I just can't get my head round how you can't at least understand the sentiment?
 
Voices on both sides of the debate understand and acknowledge this danger - it is only their preferred response that really differs. For example someone on the EU side like Macron accepts the issues with large Target2 imbalances and wants ES transfers to help address weak eurozone growth. Someone like Jacob Rees-Mogg on the other hand wants us to leave so that we can engage in tariff free trade with the rest of the world (much of which is growing faster than the eurozone countries as someone pointed out above).
 
simon.r
So you're saying models that might not be able to factor everything in, but suggest things aren't going to be good are less accurate than instinct and blind faith?

Also the 'current models' that you say have been wrong assumed article 50 would have been triggered immediately; so far nothing has really happened.

 
Embarassingly, I'm with David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg on this. Models have been done. For example, before the referendum Oxford Economics estimated the long-term cost to the UK economy of trading under WTO terms of between 1.5 and 3.9 per cent of GDP relative to otherwise by 2030. So basically they think it looks bad but with margin for error it could go either way. Especially if we secure decent deals. If you read the study rather than the press releases, they pointed out the largest factor was confidence, and also that this was the factor most notoriously difficult to predict. Essentially a "this means the margin for error is large" disclaimer baked in.
 
All the models before the referendum suggested the shock would be greater than it has been due to confidence, not specifically because of something actually happening. This is proof that models cannot be trusted, because there are too many variables/unknowns, and confidence is always fundamental.





Whagwan
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 12:27:23 (permalink)
Nice use of the selective quote there DM.
 
For the record (which is easy to see in the original posts) my response was to the whole post, not the one snippet you have quoted.

Which is exactly why we need to get ahead of this problem and grow our industries, rather than the alternative which is shackle ourselves to a failing eu and continue down the same path

darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 12:30:11 (permalink)
Whagwan
Nice use of the selective quote there DM.




Not deliberate mate! I'm not sure what you meant in that case...
 
[edit] just seen your update, still sounds like you're saying the same thing and my response would still be the same lol

Whagwan
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 13:42:24 (permalink)
The whole post was just a soundbite, could have come from any Brexiteer.  Goodone was given the opportunity to explain and qualify his reasoning and he couldn't.  Therefore I stand by my response that it didn't actually mean anything.
post edited by Whagwan - 2017/03/17 14:00:46
Goodone
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 14:18:28 (permalink)
Lol its a fair challenge I think I was pissed when I wrote it but reckon I was referring to the fact we now have a unique opportunity to come up with a commercial / industrial strategy which works for whole UK rather than being restricted by Brussels / eu. Whether u believe we will succeed or not is another matter but surely that fact is undeniable
Duderonomy
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 14:21:17 (permalink)
Scottish referendum - if May let's them hold one, it's nailed on to be a vote to leave Britain. If the EU fast-tracked their membership, we'd have a full international border, the EU within Britain, and I'm guessing a lot of the financial sector might go for Edinburgh over Dublin or Frankfurt, and probably any other industry that's still left in England and doesn't want massive tariffs.
England would also have a border to police, and everyone up north doing their shopping in Scotland... unless the value of the pound drops below the euro.
If Scotland leave, what will happen with N.I.?
The thing is, if May says no, she's just nudging the vote further towards 100% in favour of leaving. I don't see how she can win. Especially with condescending statements like "Politics isn't a game to play" @ Sturgeon.
Stoopid_Fux
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 14:40:00 (permalink)
Duderonomy
Scottish referendum - if May let's them hold one, it's nailed on to be a vote to leave Britain. If the EU fast-tracked their membership, we'd have a full international border, the EU within Britain, and I'm guessing a lot of the financial sector might go for Edinburgh over Dublin or Frankfurt, and probably any other industry that's still left in England and doesn't want massive tariffs.
England would also have a border to police, and everyone up north doing their shopping in Scotland... unless the value of the pound drops below the euro.
If Scotland leave, what will happen with N.I.?
The thing is, if May says no, she's just nudging the vote further towards 100% in favour of leaving. I don't see how she can win. Especially with condescending statements like "Politics isn't a game to play" @ Sturgeon.




 
Erm no. 
 

Slippery Mick
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 14:45:15 (permalink)
May's going to do wonders for the Scottish Independence movement.
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 14:59:23 (permalink)
Whagwan
 Therefore I stand by my response that it didn't actually mean anything.




It meant something to me baby.
 
Duderonomy
Scottish referendum - if May let's them hold one, it's nailed on to be a vote to leave Britain.




Is what the polls are not saying.
 
If the Tories are clever they could use this to really do the SNP some damage, by mostly ignoring the independence issue and focusing entirely on undermining the SNP's record in government: https://www.ft.com/content/36d6aa9a-efeb-11e4-ab73-00144feab7de
 

Slippery Mick
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:03:42 (permalink)
Well so far all may has done is describe herself abs her attitude to brexit while trying to describe why Scotland shouldn't seek independence.

By telling the Scots they can't have freedom she's only increasing support for independence. Of course there's still unionists who would climb out of rubble to say how lucky they are though.
SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:04:33 (permalink)
Sinn Fein agitating for a referendum in Northern Ireland too.
Stoopid_Fux
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:18:08 (permalink)
Call the SNP's bluff and give them a snap referendum next week. They would lose it. 
Duderonomy
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:22:34 (permalink)
Stoopid_Fux
Call the SNP's bluff and give them a snap referendum next week. They would lose it. 

It was close two years ago, now I think it would be a landslide if the EU made the right noises.
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:27:24 (permalink)
Duderonomy
Stoopid_Fux
Call the SNP's bluff and give them a snap referendum next week. They would lose it. 

It was close two years ago, now I think it would be a landslide if the EU made the right noises.



Based on what though?

Slippery Mick
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:28:23 (permalink)
darkmatter
Duderonomy
Stoopid_Fux
Call the SNP's bluff and give them a snap referendum next week. They would lose it. 

It was close two years ago, now I think it would be a landslide if the EU made the right noises.



Based on what though?




Based on one of the reasons people didn't vote for independence was because of uncertainty about remaining in the EU.
Stoopid_Fux
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:33:41 (permalink)
There would be even more uncertainity if voted to leave the UK. Spain will not allow them in the EU.
 
I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money if you gave Scotland an indepence referendum next week they would lose.
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 15:36:58 (permalink)
Stoopid_Fux
 
I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money if you gave Scotland an indepence referendum next week they would lose.




Same. I'm not saying I can predict the future, or that this is my own political preference - and I called the EU referendum wrong. But just going on the available evidence so far it seems the number of people that worry about it breaking up the UK outweighs the number who worry about leaving the EU.

SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 16:05:49 (permalink)
"»Make 5 children, not only 3. You are the future of Europe,« Turkey's @RT_Erdogan tells Turks in Europe, hinting at demographic change."

Who wanted to let this cunt into the EU again?
Stoopid_Fux
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 16:07:28 (permalink)
David Cameron?
Slippery Mick
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 16:35:35 (permalink)
Stoopid_Fux
There would be even more uncertainity if voted to leave the UK. Spain will not allow them in the EU.
 
I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money if you gave Scotland an indepence referendum next week they would lose.




Sigh. This is a myth. Spain has always said it would be fine with Scotland joining the EU provided its separation from the UK is unilateral. It only objects to Scotland breaking away on its own because that would give Catalonia ideas.
 
 
_Modus_
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 16:38:00 (permalink)
darkmatter
Stoopid_Fux
 
I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money if you gave Scotland an indepence referendum next week they would lose.




Same. I'm not saying I can predict the future, or that this is my own political preference - and I called the EU referendum wrong. But just going on the available evidence so far it seems the number of people that worry about it breaking up the UK outweighs the number who worry about leaving the EU.




I am not sure. I am half Scottish and though I couldn't vote I was dead against independence during the last referendum. If I could vote now I would vote for independence.
 
The tory anti-immigration, hard brexit agenda is something I would choose to be completely severed from if I had the chance. I think a lot of Scots now feel the same way. I think it's quite telling that the polls for independence are at about 50-50 right now. Before the referendum campaigning began last time it was about 28% for independence.
 
I think the desire for independence is less about maintaining that EU relationship and more about creating a distance from the awful politics of Westminster at present... although it's clearly a bit of both.
wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 17:04:56 (permalink)
SW14
"»Make 5 children, not only 3. You are the future of Europe,« Turkey's @RT_Erdogan tells Turks in Europe, hinting at demographic change."

Who wanted to let this cunt into the EU again?



no one. they didn't even meet the basic preconditions despite over a decade of trying. in fact they slipped back on a few in recent years.

no
Slippery Mick
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 17:08:21 (permalink)
It was mostly Cameron wasn't it? Another example of an 'EU' failure being down to pressure from the British government.
SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/17 19:20:53 (permalink)
wiseacre
SW14
"»Make 5 children, not only 3. You are the future of Europe,« Turkey's @RT_Erdogan tells Turks in Europe, hinting at demographic change."

Who wanted to let this cunt into the EU again?



no one. they didn't even meet the basic preconditions despite over a decade of trying. in fact they slipped back on a few in recent years.


We are currently paying them 5 billion until 2020 specifically for democracy. Absolutely laughable. We are funding the prisons they are locking up their entire civic society in.

Turkey is not a European country and never will be.

Get the fuck out and stay out.
Cherno Samba
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/18 11:59:09 (permalink)
SW14
wiseacre
SW14
"»Make 5 children, not only 3. You are the future of Europe,« Turkey's @RT_Erdogan tells Turks in Europe, hinting at demographic change."

Who wanted to let this cunt into the EU again?



no one. they didn't even meet the basic preconditions despite over a decade of trying. in fact they slipped back on a few in recent years.


We are currently paying them 5 billion until 2020 specifically for democracy. Absolutely laughable. We are funding the prisons they are locking up their entire civic society in.

Turkey is not a European country and never will be.

Get the fuck out and stay out.


How is it out there in Germany with their big Turkish immigrant population?
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/19 10:28:02 (permalink)

Geordie007
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/19 12:58:18 (permalink)
How has Scotland fared in the 10 years of snp rule?

Education economy and all that jazz as too lazy to research on phone.

Also don't they trade 4 times as much with the rUk than they do with Europe? Whilst we wouldn't stop trading with them if any tarrifs were imposed then that would certainly hurt them if they went alone.

Saw something in the news the other day that one of sturgeons team said it would be 10 years of misery when they left and would people be happy for that?
Whiskey_Bill
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/19 13:27:46 (permalink)
But, but, EU membership benefits! And the right to allow unelected politicians and corporations to dictate public policy! Scotland would be even more dire than it is now lol.
Geordie007
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/03/19 14:29:10 (permalink)
Thats not true Bill - all MEPs are elected by their countries and corporations have been dictating policy even here in Britain as well as the rest of the world since before  Iwas born
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