AnsweredHot!Politics Thread

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gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/17 17:25:11 (permalink)
SW14
I don't think he should have given away his redline on tuition fees either.
 



I think he'd (privately) agree with you now.

wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 14:55:18 (permalink)

no
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 15:29:23 (permalink)
Ok so far we've confirmed:
 
  • The £350million on the bus will never materialise
  • We won't be able to stop migration
  • The pound is already worth fuck all
      Still, at least we've got our country back.

wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 15:30:53 (permalink)
control well and truly taken back

no
DrumBongo
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 15:35:22 (permalink)
The control fuck shit up the way we want 
SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 15:38:04 (permalink)
gutlessrhyme
Ok so far we've confirmed:
 
  • The £350million on the bus will never materialise
  • We won't be able to stop migration
  • The pound is already worth fuck all
      Still, at least we've got our country back.




I'm not pro Brexit but the pound isn't worth "fuck all" (1.1850 vs EURO) and we haven't even left the EU yet to save the contributions or decide where they should go.
post edited by SW14 - 2017/02/22 15:45:05
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 15:45:04 (permalink)
SW14
we haven't even left the EU yet to save the contributions or decide where they should go.



Where do you think they'll go m8?
 

SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:10:44 (permalink)
gutlessrhyme
SW14
we haven't even left the EU yet to save the contributions or decide where they should go.



Where do you think they'll go m8?
 




No idea "m8".
 
I hope some does go to the NHS. 
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:11:32 (permalink)
SW14
I hope some does go to the NHS.



Ha! Good one

SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:22:19 (permalink)
Pointless speculating really. We won't have that money for at least another 2 years and quite probably longer.
 
It's similar bullshit to those in the remain camp telling us the sky would fall in as soon as we left and the experts telling us we would be left behind if we didn't join the Euro.
 
 
frizzyd
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:33:55 (permalink)
Once the EU demand the £60 billion payment from the UK to cover the current 7 year budget cycle which still needs contributing to (ends in 2020) + the following few years after where spend is already allocated in the next EU budget cycle (2020-2027 but some schemes are already agreed in this cycle) + the EU Pensions pot contribution there will be no more money for the NHS in fact there will probably be even less*!
 
* pure speculation of course!
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:36:01 (permalink)
Indeed, it's all speculation, and only time will tell. I fear if it doesn't go well though, that Brexiteers will just keep rolling out that line of us benefiting "in the long term". It'll grow and grow and grow until it's, what, 2050 until our economy might start prospering from this new non-EU situation. By which time half of us our dead, your local beach is swimming in piss, millions more have died from poverty along the way, and those EU migrants doing the low paid jobs have just been replaced with Indians and Bangladeshis.
 
 I'm prepared to eat my hat if I'm wrong.

darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:47:09 (permalink)
frizzyd
Once the EU demand the £60 billion


So you're saying he EU are robbing the NHS of badly needed money, so that they can pay for a "funded by the European Union" sign outside their straight banana factory?

darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 17:50:16 (permalink)
gutlessrhyme
Indeed, it's all speculation, and only time will tell. I fear if it doesn't go well though, that Brexiteers will just keep rolling out that line of us benefiting "in the long term". It'll grow and grow and grow until it's, what, 2050 until our economy might start prospering from this new non-EU situation.


What do you think about the change will increase prosperity? Interested to know cos that'll help me understand why it'll take over 30 years.

simon.r
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 18:23:43 (permalink)
darkmatter
gutlessrhyme
Indeed, it's all speculation, and only time will tell. I fear if it doesn't go well though, that Brexiteers will just keep rolling out that line of us benefiting "in the long term". It'll grow and grow and grow until it's, what, 2050 until our economy might start prospering from this new non-EU situation.


What do you think about the change will increase prosperity? Interested to know cos that'll help me understand why it'll take over 30 years.



 
There are articles floating about that suggests it could take that long though.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-uk-economy-long-term-future-not-affect-new-study-growth-global-markets-a7565711.html
 
Duderonomy
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 18:27:56 (permalink)
gutlessrhyme

 
 I'm prepared to eat my hat if I'm wrong.


You're going to eat your hat because food will be a distant memory in Brexit Britain.
SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 18:35:34 (permalink)
That indie article suggests to me that Brexit is a decent medium term option to free us up to trade with emerging markets while stagnant Eurozone losing an ever increasing share of global GDP.

I didn't want to be the generation affected by it though which is partly why I voted remain.
frizzyd
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 18:38:45 (permalink)
darkmatter
frizzyd
Once the EU demand the £60 billion


So you're saying he EU are robbing the NHS of badly needed money, so that they can pay for a "funded by the European Union" sign outside their straight banana factory?


Erm No read my post, it's pretty clear what i am saying....
wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 19:22:59 (permalink)
darkmatter
frizzyd
Once the EU demand the £60 billion


So you're saying he EU are robbing the NHS of badly needed money, so that they can pay for a "funded by the European Union" sign outside their straight banana factory?


Lol, you contrarian shit

no
wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 19:24:45 (permalink)
The eurozone and Britain and everywhere else above average are going to lose a greater share of global gdp because most growth is going to come from the developing world regardless of any other factors.

no
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 19:25:53 (permalink)
Duderonomy
gutlessrhyme

 
 I'm prepared to eat my hat if I'm wrong.


You're going to eat your hat because food will be a distant memory in Brexit Britain.


Lol

darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 19:41:15 (permalink)
frizzyd

Erm No read my post, it's pretty clear what i am saying....

 
Just my shit sense of humour mate, never mind
 
simon.r
darkmatter
gutlessrhyme
Indeed, it's all speculation, and only time will tell. I fear if it doesn't go well though, that Brexiteers will just keep rolling out that line of us benefiting "in the long term". It'll grow and grow and grow until it's, what, 2050 until our economy might start prospering from this new non-EU situation.


What do you think about the change will increase prosperity? Interested to know cos that'll help me understand why it'll take over 30 years.



 
There are articles floating about that suggests it could take that long though.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-uk-economy-long-term-future-not-affect-new-study-growth-global-markets-a7565711.html
 




The issues I have with this (taken from the original report here: http://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/assets/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-uk-economy.pdf):
 
- They assume a counterfactual scenario with a long term trend growth rate of 2.2% continuing. I'm not suggesting I have a better figure to use, but since growth amongst EU member states has gone from ~4% in 2000 to under 2% now I don't think this is a fully reliable starting point.
 
- It doesn't account for Trump, the impact of nationalism on EU politics etc. It assumes there is no trade imbalance/debt issue at the heart of the EU that risks its current growth rate of just under 2%. Of course it couldn't, too many factors and finger in the air guesses, but by not doing so it's hard to see how it can be accurate.
 
- The report estimates that by 2030, growth in terms of GDP per capita if we remained in the EU could be around 29%, while leaving would put us around 28%. That is an incredibly small difference, and because the study is based on many unknowns, for me that isn't a large enough margin of error to allow us to call it either way. (In the interest of honesty, they say it could be a -0.8% difference in their 'better case' scenario and a -2.7% difference in their 'worse case' scenario).
 
- The study states "the largest short-term impact on the economy is felt through the additional uncertainty that would result from a UK vote to leave". Or to paraphrase, "market confidence". If the major negative impact they were predicting was explicitly from certain financial mechanisms (e.g. tariffs), then I'd be more concerned. However what they're essentially saying is that the biggest factor could be something notoriously hard to predict, i.e. human sentiment. I guess that's why I'm interested to understand whether people are worried about specific things, or whether it's a general feeling of doom and gloom, since the forecasters seem to be saying that 'people getting worried' is the single biggest thing stopping it from working 
 
- The original report suggests the negative impact by 2025 would be under 1% in the better case scenario. However, their revised outlook (http://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html) states that "UK economic growth held up better than expected immediately after the Brexit vote...". The cynical might argue that the original modelling therefore had a slight 'anti-Brexit' bias, whereas the reality will be slightly more positive than predicted. It's probably just as much due to this sort of forecasting being very difficult and often quite unreliable.
 
- https://www.ft.com/conten...11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0
post edited by darkmatter - 2017/02/22 20:15:14

SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 20:33:07 (permalink)
wiseacre
The eurozone and Britain and everywhere else above average are going to lose a greater share of global gdp because most growth is going to come from the developing world regardless of any other factors.


Granted, but who will be in a better position to trade with those emerging markets? Britain or a protectionist Eurozone trading bloc?
gutlessrhyme
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 20:46:03 (permalink)
SW14
wiseacre
The eurozone and Britain and everywhere else above average are going to lose a greater share of global gdp because most growth is going to come from the developing world regardless of any other factors.


Granted, but who will be in a better position to trade with those emerging markets? Britain or a protectionist Eurozone trading bloc?



I think they'd much rather trade with 27 countries in one hit than us on our own!

SW14
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 20:52:08 (permalink)
First that involves agreeing a trade deal with all of the 27 (including all of the individual and different state interests).

The common market is protectionist to encourage internal trade. As a nation that doesn't manufacture a huge amount and has a trade deficit, we could be far more nimble.
darkmatter
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/22 22:52:50 (permalink)
I like Hannan's point at 7:30, it summarises some of my concerns well: 
 

 
 

Whagwan
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/23 07:13:56 (permalink)
God, Mandelson is a cunt
geordie007
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/23 07:59:19 (permalink)
frizzyd
If the EU demand the £60 billion payment from the UK to cover the current 7 year budget cycle which still needs contributing to (ends in 2020) + the following few years after where spend is already allocated in the next EU budget cycle (2020-2027 but some schemes are already agreed in this cycle) + the EU Pensions pot contribution there will be no more money for the NHS in fact there will probably be even less*!
 
* pure speculation of course!




 
Fixed that for you.
wiseacre
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/23 08:15:01 (permalink)
SW14
First that involves agreeing a trade deal with all of the 27 (including all of the individual and different state interests).

The common market is protectionist to encourage internal trade. As a nation that doesn't manufacture a huge amount and has a trade deficit, we could be far more nimble.


But without preferential access to the 500 million strong market on our doorstep that currently accounts for half our trade, to the detriment of the financial and other service industries that supply much of the income that plugs part of that balance of payments gap.

no
geordie007
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Re: General Election 2015 2017/02/23 08:32:54 (permalink)

 
The last time it was at 50% was 2008 and we are increasing our sales to BRICs and also Hong Kong which for some reason isnt included in China

 
So its not really all doom and gloom and im pretty sure that they will still want to buy stuff from us or are you saying we will lose all that trade in an instant as soon as we leave?
 
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